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Why should sex selection ultimately decline?

Christophe Z. Guilmoto, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)
Laura Rahm, Universitat de Barcelona

This paper reviews the latest evidence on trends in the sex ratio at birth and their potential factors We will first show that downward trends of birth masculinity are now observed or anticipated in almost all countries affected by sex imbalances at birth. In many cases, the sex ratio at birth is clearly falling and may in fact reach soon biological level Elsewhere, recent data point to a stalling in the sex ratio at birth at a plateau level, but signs of an impending decline can be already detected and confirmed by recent Bayesian projections of future SRB levels. We will highlight the numerous commonalities in the SRB trends and use them as clues to interpret the SRB transition. This communication discusses the potential factors behind the rise and fall in SRB, starting with the exogenous changes that precipitated the onset in birth masculinity. We then explore the possibility of exogenous factors affecting the trajectory of SRB such as social, economic and policy change. Emphasis will be placed on public policies and their impact on SRB trajectories. We finally explore endogenous factors that would account for the self-correcting aspect of SRB evolution over the last three decades.

Keywords: Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights, Fertility and childbirth, Gender, Family demography

See extended abstract.

  Presented in Session 98. Societal Impacts of Sex Selection Behaviour