English  Français

Continuity and change in spatial patterns in UK fertility: the case of London

Hannaliis Jaadla, University of Cambridge
Alice Reid, University of Cambridge
Eilidh Garrett, Cambridge University

Much of the previous research on fertility patterns has focused on between country variation, especially when thinking about fertility variation in the last 20 years or so. Less attention has been paid to regional variation but this seems to be changing. In this paper, our aim is to move from cross-country and subnational approaches to understand local variation in fertility in one of the largest cities in Europe. We will examine and compare spatial patterns in fertility in London in the early 20th century with those 100 years later. Our main data sources for this study are the 1901, 1911, 2001 and 2011 censuses for England and Wales and the published reports on vital statistics surrounding the census years. To consider the determinants of local variation in fertility in a metropolitan area, our modelling strategy is to estimate separate stepwise OLS regression models, we also experiment with spatial regression specifications. We consider how local living conditions as well as demographic, socio-economic and cultural factors determined local variations in London fertility in the late nineteenth and the early twenty-first centuries. Is there possible persistence in geography over time?

Keywords: Fertility and childbirth, Spatial analysis/regression, Historical demography/methods, Urbanization and urban populations

See extended abstract.

  Presented in Session 150. Spatial Population Dynamics