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Stable and non-stable momentum of population growth: Examining the dominating effect of younger age-structure over fast fertility decline in Indian states

Raj Kumar Verma, Population Council, India

Using the classic concepts of ‘population momentum’ by Keyfitz (1971) and recent studies by Espenshade, Olgiati and Levin (2011) about decomposing momentum in stable and non-stable components, this study aims to convey a deeper understanding of how age composition would contribute to the long term population size of Indian states. The findings suggest that the future population growth of the Indian states is mostly attributable to the population momentum. Low fertility states e.g. South Indian states, Punjab, Himanchal Pradesh have achieved sub-replacement fertility long before but they will have their prospective growth due to their younger age structure. On the other hand, high fertility states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, etc. will initially grow due to their high fertility and once they are successful in reducing their fertility, the further growth would be prominently attributable to their young age distributions. The effect of nonstable momentum in comparison to stable momentum is prominent and dominating while deciding the ultimate population size of Indian states. A comprehensive approach to implement all policy options is required on an urgent basis in India and especially in backward states of northern and central regions to avoid the adverse consequences of rapid population growth.

Keywords: Age structure, Mathematical demography, Population size and growth/decline, Decomposition analysis/methods

See extended abstract.

  Presented in Session 184. Strengthening the Evidence Base for Inclusive Population Policies