Low fertility in Tehran: An agent-based modeling approach

Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, The University of Tehran
Nasibeh Esmaeili, University of Tehran
Hajiieh Bibi Razeghi Nasrabad, National Institute for Population Research, Iran.
Fatemeh Torabi, University of Tehran

Iran has experienced below-replacement fertility since 2000, and some provinces have reached very low fertility in recent years. Extensive studies have been carried out to explain low fertility using analytical tools which reveal the lack of a linear and monotonic relationship between low fertility and the factors affecting fertility. The availability of software and hardware facilities has made it possible to model such complex processes as low fertility containing non-monotonic and non-linear relationships. Agent-based modeling is considered as a powerful tool with the ability to model and predict the performance of complex systems along with the capability to employ various parameters in model building. In this paper, low fertility behavior for Tehran province as having very low fertility is simulated using agent-based modeling technique developed based on the Belief-Desire-Intention-BDI architecture. The simulations will predict such indicators as the number of births, number of pregnancies and abortions for the next 96 months. Considering the importance of economic variables on women's future fertility behavior, some related scenarios will also be simulated and evaluated based on the developed model. Our preliminary calibration results confirm the level of fertility during 2017-2019 published by the statistical center of Iran indicating the reliability of the predictions.

Keywords: Fertility and childbirth, Simulation, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations

See extended abstract.

  Presented in Session 179. Fertility Transition and Prospects