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Variation in burden of Covid-19 pandemic across the federal states in Germany: the role of reported morbidity and selected structural factors

Marina Kolobova, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)
Dmitri A. Jdanov, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany) / National Research University Higher School of Economics (Russia)
Domantas Jasilionis, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research / Vytautas Magnus University
Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research and New Economic School, Russia
Roland Rau, University of Rostock

The study examines regional variation in excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany and explores the statistical relationship between excess mortality, morbidity, and selected state-level indicators. The results highlight a temporal and regional heterogeneity in excess mortality and its potential determinants across federal states in Germany. The study revealed substantial differences between the regional patterns of correspondence between the excess mortality and COVID-19 morbidity. Based on the large differences in the testing coverage and testing strategies across the federal states, this heterogeneity may be explained by variations in under-registration of COVID-19. Differences in age structure, preparedness of the health care system, and socioeconomic factors explain a significant part of the inter-state variation in excess mortality. Along with the morbidity indicators, region-specific structural characteristics should be considered as factors of excess mortality in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19, Mortality, Spatial analysis/regression, Health and morbidity

See extended abstract.

  Presented in Session 203. Geographic Variations in Education and Health