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Decline in General Fertility Rates in Brazil following Zika Virus and Covid-19 outbreaks

Leticia J. Marteleto, University of Texas at Austin
Luiz Fernandes, University of Texas at Austin
Raquel Coutinho, CEDEPLAR - Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Sandra Valongueiro, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco
Molly Dondero, American University
Andrew Koepp, University of Texas at Austin
Ryan Lloyd, University of Texas at Austin
Ana Paula Portella, University of Texas at Austin

The goal of this paper is to estimate fertility trends in Brazil during the 2010s, during the ZIKV and COVID-19 crises. We use SARIMA forecast, normality test and Box Cox transformation. We find that fertility trends were stable in the 2011-2015 period, with expected seasonality. Fertility dropped during the Zika epidemic and rebounded in 2017, after the epidemic, but increases do not configure a baby-boom. Rather, peak levels never returned to those from the pre-Zika period. Correcting for Civil Registry data for the most recent period shows that fertility levels never truly rebounded after the Zika epidemic, and were already declining when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. We argue that the uncertainties generated by novel infectious disease epidemics have tangible consequences for fertility that can be even more dramatic in Brazil because of successive timing of the Zika and COVID-19 emergencies, as well as economic and political crises during these periods. In the absence of publicly available data from Brazil’s Ministry of Health since 2019, it is imperative to examine available data with the goal of uncovering the consequences of all of the crises overlapping in the country.

Keywords: Fertility and childbirth, COVID-19, Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS), Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights

See paper.

  Presented in Session P3.