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A Macro-level Analysis of Non-nationals’ Fertility Response to the Great Recession in Italy

Thaís García Pereiro, Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro"
Anna Paterno, University of Bari

Fertility responses to economic downturns not only react to structural conditions but also tend to vary widely among population groups,. Whether and how the relationship between employment and fertility varies according to the ethnic origin are both arguments that have not been still sufficiently acknowledged on empirical studies. It is well known that economic conditions affect childbearing, but little is still known about how immigrants’ fertility behaviors at the macrolevel have been affected by the recent economic crisis. This contribution will account for non-nationals fertility responses to the economic crisis, assessing the role played by compositional changes on the observed decline of non-nationals’ fertility during and after the recession. It will also determine whether and how responses to economic conditions differently affect non-nationals fertility according to women’s age. Our analyses will compare non-national and national fertility responses and include a temporal window long enough to evaluate not only short but also long-term trends and relations. To this end, we will build a regional-level panel dataset for the period 2006-2018 and estimate several ordinary least squares regression models with regional and calendar year fixed effects to control for unobserved region and period characteristics.

Keywords: Fertility and childbirth, Quantum and tempo effects, Economic analysis

See paper.

  Presented in Session 40. Social Differences and Fertility (II)