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Fertility and job uncertainty: the case of the Italian couples 2012-20

Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna, University of Padova
Rachele Brocco, Dept. of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova, Italy
Carlo Paolin, Dept. of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova, Italy

In post-modern world, job (in)stability is a strong predictor of fertility behavior. The hypotheses we want to verify are two: (HP1) In the Italian areas where the economic context and the labor market are weaker, as job insecurity increases, fertility of couples increases too, because couples look for in parenthood the social role and the stability of life they do not found in a stable job, which often is practically impossible to pursue; (2) in the richest areas of the country, job stability could be a necessary precondition for deciding to have a child: consequently, in these contexts, we expect fertility of couples to decrease as job instability increases. We use the micro-data of the Continuous Survey of the Labor Forces (RCFL) for the years 2012-20, where a large sample of couples are followed during 15 months after the first interview. This is the only recent Italian large panel where fertility according to the job condition of both partners can be calculated. The first results show that HP1 could be verified only for young couples living in the poorest provinces of Italy, whereas for the over30 and in the richest provinces HP2 prevails.

Keywords: Fertility and childbirth, Panel studies

See extended abstract.

  Presented in Session 40. Social Differences and Fertility (II)