Decomposing Geographical Variation of Declining Child Sex Ratio in Uttar Pradesh

Rajesh Chauhan, Directorate Of Economics & Statistics, The Planning Department, Government Of Uttar Pradesh
Sanjay K Mohanty, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)

Along with development and demographic transition, Indian states are experiencing secular decline in child sex ratio at varying degrees. While increasing sex-selective abortions and excess female childhood mortality are typically cited reasons for the decline, little is known about the role of village/block/district clustering in explaining the decline of CSR. Using data from three consecutive censuses, this paper decomposes variation of CSR across 106658 villages in Uttar Pradesh, India. This study aims at analyzing Census data at three levels viz. village, development block, and district level and identify the geographical areas of concern for three censuses; 1991, 2001, and 2011. Backward recasting of Primary Census Abstract data of 106658 villages and 821 development blocks for 1991 and 2001 has been done on the basis of 2011 Census. There has been 24 points decline in CSR in state during past two decades; at micro level, 54 percent of villages and at macro level 79 percent blocks and 89 percent of districts registered a decline. There is an East-West divide in CSR. Multivariate analysis reveal ‘proportion of child population’ is negatively associated with decline in CSR. Multilevel analysis reveals a larger variation explained by the village/town level followed by district and block levels.

Keywords: Census data, Multi-level modeling, Spatial analysis/regression

See extended abstract.

  Presented in Session 21. What Affects Child Health: Perspectives from India