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Tuberculosis incidence in Brazil: is it possible to achieve the SDG target?

Ana Carolina Bertho, National School of Statistical Sciences (ENCE), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)
Larissa Alves, National School of Statistical Sciences (ENCE), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)
Paulo Santos, National School of Statistical Sciences (ENCE), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)

Tuberculosis is a preventable and curable disease, but it is still a matter of concern worldwide. Reducing new cases and deaths from this cause is foreseen both in the "End TB" strategy, defined by the WHO, which proposes a 90% drop in incidence rates by 2035 compared with 2015; and in indicator 3.3.2 of the SDGs, which predicts that, by 2030, the incidence rate of TB per 100 thousand inhabitants will be reduced by 80% compared with 2015. In Brazil, the prevalence rate for this disease dropped by 42% between 1990 and 2015. However, the country still appears among the 30 with the highest incidence rates of TB. This article aims to assess whether, following the trends observed between 2001 and 2018, Brazil will be able to achieve the goals by 2030. An analysis was carried out using monthly data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) for the period from 2001 to 2018. Using a dynamic Poisson model, the incidence of TB was forecast for Brazil and Regions. The results presented show that there is no tendency to decrease new cases and that, at the current rate, Brazil will not reach the SDG target.

Keywords: Health and morbidity, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Bayesian methods / estimation

See paper.

  Presented in Session 87. Communicable Diseases in the Americas