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Projecting excess infant mortality in low- and middle-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic based on forecasted declines in economic growth

Gil Shapira, The World Bank Group
Damien De Walque, 1818 H Street NW
Jed Friedman, World Bank Group

While COVID-19 has a relatively small direct impact on infant mortality, the pandemic is expected to indirectly increase mortality of this group, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, through its effects on the economy and health systems. Previous studies projected indirect mortality by modelling disruptions in health services. We provide alternative projections, modelling the relationship between aggregate income shocks and mortality. We construct a sample of 5.2 million births by pooling retrospective birth histories reported by women in Demographic and Health Surveys in 83 low- and middle-income countries between 1985 and 2018. We estimate the impact of GDP per capita on infant mortality rate using regression models with country-specific fixed-effects and flexible time trends. We then use growth projections by the IMF to predict the effect of the economic downturn in 2020 on infant mortality. We estimate 267,208 (137,341-397,075) excess infant deaths in 128 countries, a 6.8% increase in the total number of infant deaths expected in 2020. The findings underscore infants’ vulnerability to negative income shocks such as those imposed by the pandemic. While efforts towards prevention and treatment of COVID-19 remain paramount, the global community should also strengthen social safety nets and assure continuity of essential health services.

Keywords: COVID-19, Mortality, Children and youth, Demographic and social surveys

See paper.

  Presented in Session 129. Direct and Indirect Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic