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Who Wears the Crown? Biomarkers and Anthropometric Indices Prediction of Cardiometabolic Diseases among Adults in Malawi

Sally Sonia Simmons, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE)

The incidence of cardiometabolic diseases including stroke, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), hypertension and diabetes is exacerbating among adults in countries like Malawi, with a high prevalence of HIV. Stroke, IHD, hypertension and diabetes are often diagnosed with universal biomarkers and anthropometric indices that may not necessarily suit the Malawian context and be counterproductive. This one-tier approach poses a challenge to the appropriateness of cardiometabolic diseases diagnoses and management. The paper identified biomarkers and anthropometric indices with better cardiometabolic diseases prediction using lasso prediction models and data from the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Surveillance (STEPS, 2017) Malawi. The study revealed that biomarkers were strong predictors of cardiometabolic diseases than anthropometric indices. Biomarkers such as blood glucose and cholesterol are the most important predictors of cardiometabolic diseases. Moreover, the predictive strength of biomarkers varied from diabetes to hypertension. Also, anthropometric measures like blood pressure, abdominal volume index (AVI), and a body shape index (ABSI) were the most important predictors of cardiometabolic diseases. BMI, the standard index, was relatively a less important predictor. Disease prediction is of critical importance for formulating screening strategies that reliably identify individuals at a higher risk of developing cardiometabolic diseases. Keywords: biomarkers, anthropometric indices, cardiometabolic diseases, Malawi

Keywords: Cross-country comparative analyses, Longitudinal studies, Older adults, Health and morbidity

No extended abstract or paper available

  Presented in Session P10.