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Approaches to Study Parity Progression of Fertility with illustrative application to India’s National Family Health Survey

Padum Narayan, Gauhati University
Arvind Pandey, ICMR - National Institute of Medical Statistics

Among several approaches, analysis of closed and open birth intervals is taken as the simplest way to study the degree of parity transitions. The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of the parity progression ratios (PPRs) from the truncated distribution of birth intervals and the life table approach. The estimates of PPR are then used to examine the level and role of certain intermediate variables on fertility in India. It evolved two models, one considers the distribution of closed birth intervals and open birth intervals truncated as a specific time to estimate the PPRs. The life table approach has been adopted as a second model. Birth history data extracted from NFHS-3, 2005-06 are used in the analysis. The estimates of PPR based on the life table as compared to those based on direct use of mean closed and open birth intervals are, though same in the beginning, are consistently greater after parity 2. The implied estimate of TMFR derived from the estimates of PPR from the former is close to its direct estimate. Under the multivariate framework, life table analysis shows that women’s place of residence and education are two important intermediate variables affecting fertility in India.

Keywords: Fertility and childbirth, Event history analysis, Demographic and social surveys, Methodology

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  Presented in Session 147. Measurement Issues in Sexual and Reproductive Health Research