Probabilistic projection of subnational total fertility rate in India and its 15 major states, 1950-2100

Ankita Srivastava, Jawaharlal Nehru University
Nandita Saikia, Jawaharlal Nehru University

The main objective of this paper is to project fertility rates for the sub-national level in India using the UN’s Bayesian probabilistic approach to compare with the most recent fertility information population projections of India and States (2011-2036), a report prepared by a 'Technical Group on Population Projection' with the deterministic projection. Results show that technical group projections systematically underestimated the TFR in 2018, since the pace of acceleration of the fertility decline in the 2000s is bit slow compared to them. Social advances observed in this decade might have influenced such fertility decline. For projections with starting point in 2018, technical group’s estimations still present lower figures than those projected by the Bayesian model (TFR by technical group, 2.13 in 2016-2020; Bayesian estimated TFR 2.24 in 2018), additionally a different convergence pattern in 2030. As per our projection result, TFR is expected to decline from 2.24 during 2018 to 1.97 during 2033 to 1.73 in 2058. In India, Bayesian approach projections are a promising alternative to sub-national level projections, providing point estimates and calculate uncertainty. However, some changes, such as the inclusion of age-specific fertility rates and fertility-related covariates, such as educational attainment, may be made to the model.

Keywords: Bayesian methods / estimation, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations, Small area estimation, Mathematical demography

See extended abstract.

  Presented in Session 138. Fertility in India: Present and Prospect