Emanuela Furfaro, University of California, Davis
Federico Castelletti, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Adrian Raftery, University of Washington, Seattle
We use a Bayesian Hierarchical model to estimate and forecast internal migration flows. In particular, we use data on sub-national migration in Italy and we develop a Bayesian Extended Gravity Model, which includes demographic and geographic covariates, for testing theories of migration. The model is well calibrated, and we find that the Total Fertility Rate is a relevant predictor. We also propose several Bayesian models for forecasting migration flows between all pairs of provinces, and we find that Bayesian autoregressive models perform well and give well-calibrated intervals.
Keywords: Bayesian methods / estimation, Internal migration, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations
Presented in Session 170. Understanding Migration: Applying New Data and Methods