Patterns and Trends in Adolescent Fertility Across Municipalities in Nepal Between 2011 and 2016

Charlotte Greenbaum, Population Reference Bureau (PRB)
Hari Dhonju, Digital Data System for Development
Toshiko Kaneda, Population Reference Bureau (PRB)

While Nepal’s fertility is approaching replacement level, national averages mask the complexity of fertility dynamics. Data from the 2016 Demographic Health Survey suggest variations in adolescent fertility across provinces, suggesting potential need for adolescent family planning programming in certain areas, but no local adolescent fertility estimates are available. This study’s objectives are to estimate adolescent fertility rates for the 753 municipalities in Nepal in 2011 and 2016 based on educational attainment, marital status, and community-level characteristics and to examine change over time to identify areas with high or increasing adolescent fertility. Our analyses in Nepal's seven provinces show that while adolescent fertility in some municipalities has decreased, many municipalities have experienced increasing or stagnant adolescent fertility. We identified 106 priority municipalities where adolescent fertility is 1) high and stagnant or increasing, and 2) where there were an estimated 1,000 births or more to adolescent mothers from 2011 to 2016. These 106 municipalities account for over 20% of all births to girls ages 15-19 in Nepal. Analyzing adolescent fertility rates at the municipality level is essential for determining where efforts are needed to improve well-being and access to contraception, reduce adolescent fertility, and contribute to a potential demographic dividend.

Keywords: Fertility and childbirth, Children and youth, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Small area estimation

See extended abstract.

  Presented in Session P3.