Fertility in Italian regions: analysis and estimation of cohort indicators

Sara Miccoli, Sapienza University of Rome

The aim of the paper is to analyze the fertility of the cohorts in the Italian regions, estimating the completed fertility of the cohorts born in 1970-1987, still in the reproductive ages in 2019. Italy is one of the countries with the lowest level of fertility in the European context. While period fertility, although tending to decline, has experienced phases of recovery, the same has not happened for the cohort fertility. The analysis will be conducted using ISTAT data, estimating the coefficients of the fertility function through a Poisson regression and using the parameters provided by this model to make predictions of the specific fertility rates for the missing ages of the incomplete generations. Preliminary results show a continuous decline in the fertility, both for the complete and incomplete cohorts. In particular, in the regions of the South and the Islands, drop in fertility could be continuous and affect all the cohorts after 1968. Detailed knowledge of the evolution of the present and future cohorts fertility is important in order to deal with the consequences associated with the fertility decline.

Keywords: Fertility and childbirth, Longitudinal studies, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations, Population geography

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  Presented in Session 144. Spatial and Social Patterns of Fertility