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Demographic Change Under Climate Change: Projecting the Future Health(Care) Burden From Heat Waves in the Metropolitan Area of Vienna, Austria

Erich Striessnig, University of Vienna
Roman Hoffmann, Wittgenstein Centre - IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU
Anna Renner, Vienna University for Economics and Business
Ingrid Setz, Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, OeAW, Univ. Vienna)
Leora Courtney-Wolfman, Austrian Academy of Sciences
Raya Muttarak, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Extreme weather events such as heat waves are expected to become more frequent and intense as a consequence of global warming. No doubt, this will affect the health and well-being of all populations, including those in regions with moderate climates like Central Europe. Using spatiotemporal meteorological data and an exhaustive administrative database on all hospital admissions from 2009 to 2018 in the metropolitan area of Vienna, Austria, we model the relationship between thermal hazards and hospitalizations. Differentiating by age, sex, socioeconomic status, and degree of urbanization allows us to account for the effects of demographic dynamics, heterogeneity, and agglomeration effects when projecting the future burden of urban heat on health and healthcare. To the best of our knowledge, no other study to date considers climate effects on health in conjunction with the differential vulnerability of the exposed population in an urban environment.

Keywords: Environmental studies, Health and morbidity, Population ageing, Spatial analysis/regression

See extended abstract.

  Presented in Session 173. Population Shifts and Environmental Change: Past Trends, Current Conditions and Future Scenarios