English  Français

Depopulation, super aging, and extreme heat events in South Korea

Oh Seok Kim, Korea University
Jihyun Han, Seoul Institute of Technology
Kee Whan Kim, Korea University
Stephen A. Matthews, Retired
Changsub Shim, Korea Environment Institute

Given that South Korea has recorded the lowest fertility among all nations and is experiencing population decline, it is crucial to take such demographic dynamics into account when estimating potential exposure to extreme heat events (EHE) that will be intensified due to climate change. We analyze two business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios from 2020 and 2060: the BAU population scenario, and the BAU climate scenario. Both BAUs are overlaid to identify potential EHE exposure. The results show that the pace of depopulation is slower than the pace of climate change at the national level, resulting in the increasing trend of exposure over time, but such a trend is not maintained varies at the municipal level. The most intensive exposure will be in 2040 owing to the most severe EHE, while population aging is less severe than in anticipated in 2060. Seoul will be most vulnerable because of its super aging, while severe EHE will make Daegu the second-most vulnerable municipal area. In 2060, the population aged =65 will be four times more exposed than this age group was in 2020. In conclusion, because of super aging, South Korea’s elderly population will become vulnerable to EHE although the nation’s total population will decline.

Keywords: Environmental studies, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations, Small area estimation, Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

See extended abstract.

  Presented in Session P1.