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Analysing population decline trajectories in regional Europe: a sequence analysis

Niall Newsham, University of Liverpool

Latest population projections expect the continental population of Europe to reverse its longstanding trajectory of growth into one of decline within the next five years. Population decline is not, however, expected to occur uniformly across the continent as significant differences in the rate and direction of population change are set to persist. Despite the immediacy of continental population decline, the subject remains under researched and our understanding insufficient. Particular deficiencies stem from a lack of cross-national and temporal considerations of depopulation. This study seeks to address this through the novel application of sequence and cluster analysis methods to examine variations in population decline trajectories in 2,036 sub-national areas across 43 European territories. The methodology allows for a holistic understanding of decline trajectories whilst also considering the ordering, timing, and magnitude of population decline. Its main contribution is the formulation of a typology of decline in which seven distinct depopulation pathways are identified and mapped. Results are discussed with the view of describing the current state of population decline, portraying decline as a spatially heterogeneous process. Decline trajectories are also examined by area type and population size, concluding that the drivers of European depopulation are predominantly rural areas with small populations.

Keywords: Population size and growth/decline, Cross-country comparative analyses, Population geography, Methodology

See extended abstract.

  Presented in Session 150. Spatial Population Dynamics