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Recent trends in Australia's cohort fertility: the role of timing and spacing by education level

Edith E. Gray, Australian National University
Ann Evans, Australian National University
Anna Reimondos, Australian National University

In Australia, the latest TFR for 2019 was 1.66, which is the lowest on record. While the TFR gives us contemporaneous information it is susceptible to tempo changes, such as the postponement of childbearing to later ages. To get a better understanding of recent fertility trends in Australia we use survey data to track cohort fertility from the 1950-54 cohort onwards. We decompose changes in completed family size according to four components: proportion who are childless, average age at first birth, average age at last birth, and interval between births. The cohort of women born in 1950-54 had an average of 2.30 children, falling to 2.09 children for the 1970-74 cohort. This decline can be traced to the increasing age at first birth and the proportion of women who remain childless at the end of their reproductive lives. While age at last birth increased and interval between births decreased thus having a positive effect on the fertility, it was not enough to counteract the dampening effect of increasing age at first birth and proportion who are childless. For each component we investigate the patterns across different education levels within the cohorts and what potential this has for future fertility trends.

Keywords: Decomposition analysis/methods, Demographic and social surveys, Family demography

See extended abstract.

  Presented in Session P11.