Estimating International Migration Flows for the Asia-Pacific Region: Application of a Generation-Distribution Model

James Raymer, Australian National University
Qing Guan, Australian National University
Tianyu Shen, Australian National University
Arkadiusz Wisniowski, University of Manchester
Juliet Pietsch, Griffith University

Flows of international migration are needed in the Asia-Pacific region to understand the patterns and corresponding effects on demographic, social and economic change in both the sending and receiving countries. However, nearly all of the countries in this region do not gather or produce statistics on international migration flows (different from immigrant population stocks). In this paper, we use a generation-distribution model framework to indirectly estimate annual flows of international migration amongst 53 populations in the Asia-Pacific region and four macro world regions with measures of uncertainty. Every year between 2000 and 2019, 27-31 million persons are estimated to have changed their countries of usual residence within and beyond the Asia-Pacific region. Southern Asia is estimated to have the largest inflow and outflow among all subcontinents. Intra-subcontinental migration flows and return migration flows are estimated to be high in Eastern, Southern, and South-Eastern Asia regions. India, China, and Indonesia are expected to have the largest emigration flows and net migration losses. As the first attempt to estimate international migration flows in the Asia-Pacific region, this paper provide a basis and starting point to understand the patterns and complexity of migration from and to countries with scarce or missing data.

Keywords: International migration, Population projections, forecasts, and estimations, Spatial analysis/regression, Cross-country comparative analyses

See paper.

  Presented in Session 99. Migration Patterns: Internal and International