Understanding modern contraceptive supply dynamics: a latent class analysis of the CM4FP project's longitudinal outlet data from Nigeria

Justin Archer, Independent Consultant
Paul Bouanchaud, Population Services International (PSI)
Bo Hu, Londom School of Economics
Hildah Essendi, Population Services Kenya
Chinedu Onyezobi, Society for Family Health Nigeria
Mark Conlon, Population Services International
Julius Ngigi, Population Services Kenya
Peter Buyungo, Population Services International, Uganda
Noah Nyende, Population Services International-Uganda
Raymond Sudoi, Independent Consultant
Eden Demise, Population Services International
Baker Lukwago, PSI
Hoda Elmasry, Independent Researcher
Amanda Kalamar, Population Council
Nkemdiri Wheatley, Independent Researcher

Understanding FP supply is important for ensuring access to FP products. Other studies have tended to use cross-sectional, point-in-time data collected from samples of FP outlets to explore this question, and have found relatively stable FP supply at aggregate level. Using three rounds of longitudinal data from a census of FP outlets collected by the CM4FP project (2019-2020 in Nigeria), we explore whether market dynamics look different when analyzed at outlet level over time and use latent class analysis to explore underlying patterns in availability and stock out across six main FP products between census rounds. We found that FP products went in and out of stock more frequently than data at aggregate level suggests. Our analysis of individual products suggests outlets change stocking status for short-acting methods and emergency contraceptive pills (EC) more commonly than long-acting reversible contraceptives. Using latent class analysis we propose a three-class model for FP product availability as a good fit for identifying unobserved outlet groupings in the data. Likelihood of class membership varied by outlet type, with smaller private sector outlets most likely to be classified as having primarily short acting methods available and larger facilities as having all non-EC methods available.

Keywords: Family planning and contraception, Linked data sets, Panel studies

See paper.

  Presented in Session 31. Contraceptive Dynamics: Supply Side Issues