English 
Français

An empirical estimation of coronapistes’ positive spillovers on bicycle commuting in Paris through social influence

Léonard Moulin, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
Guilhem Lecouteux, Université Côte d'Azur

The aim of this paper is to measure the effects on bicycle use in Paris of the creation of the coronapistes in May 2020, using data from the City of Paris’ Open Data initiative about bike traffic and the cycling network. First, we confirm that the policy significantly contributed to increase bicycle traffic. Second, we investigate whether this upsurge in cycling can be the result of an ongoing social dynamic of bicycle adoption, and thus not limited to the improvement of the infrastructures per se. We identify a statistically significant effect akin to a form of social influence in the growth of bicycle adoption following the creation of the coronapistes in 2020, while the effect is not significant in 2018 and 2019. Our analysis suggests that the creation of the coronapistes in Paris may have generated positive spillovers by initiating a dynamics of social imitation, since the rate of adoption among the non-cyclists tends to increase over time. This would imply that similar policies could be effective even in cities lacking a strong bicycle culture, since improving cycling infrastructures could be sufficient on its own to affect individuals’ preferences and in fine their choice of transportation modes.

Keywords: COVID-19, Economic analysis, Policy evaluation, Outcome and impact evaluations

See extended abstract.

  Presented in Session 168. Socioeconomic Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic