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Effects of the Haiti 2010 Earthquake on Fertility

Hilde Orderud, European University Institute
Juho Härkönen, European University Institute

A high intensity earthquake in a low-income country is likely to cause devastating consequences, and could potentially alter the demography of the affected population. Previous research has identified a fertility increase in affected areas after earthquakes. The 2010 Haiti earthquake was the most devastating over the previous 200 years, and caused as many as 220,000 deaths. We investigate the effect of the 2010 Haiti earthquake on parity specific fertility behaviour, measured through risk of first, second and third birth. Data from Haiti Demographic and Health Surveys from 2005/06, 2012 and 2016/17 are combined with data on the earthquake measured through the Modified Mercalli intensity scale from U.S. Geological Survey. Event history analysis is applied in a difference-in-differences design to investigate the effect on fertility before and after the earthquake across more or less affected areas. The results show a significantly higher risk of births after than before the earthquake for all births. Contradictory to other studies, we find a declining risk of all births the more affected the area of residence was by the earthquake.

Keywords: Fertility and childbirth, Event history analysis, Geo-referenced/geo-coded data, Demographic and social surveys

No extended abstract or paper available

  Presented in Session 17. Pandemics, Health, and Fertility