The impact of the Covid pandemic on natality and fertility in France

Sandra Brée, Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS)
Didier Breton, Université de Strasbourg and Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)

This communication aims to analyse the impact of the Covid pandemic on natality in France, with a special focus on the drop in births 9 months after the first lockdown which took place from 17 March to 10 May 2020. In addition to the stress linked to the country's health situation and the confinement of families in sometimes small spaces, there is a strong apprehension of the economic consequences of the pandemic as of March 2020. All this was unfavourable to fertility, but the drop has not been uniform across the country. We will therefore analyse the drop in natality according to different criteria: the level of excess mortality to understand the (impact of the stress linked to the health crisis); the standard of living; the age of the women, as we hypothesise that the decisions in terms of postponing fertility vary according to their age; housing areas (urban, peri-urban, rural) to test whether the inhabitants of urban areas have suffered the confinement, and the health crisis in general, more severely than those of the countryside. These analyses will be carried out at the national level for a first presentation and then at the departmental level to refine the analysis.

Keywords: COVID-19, Fertility and childbirth, Spatial analysis/regression

See extended abstract.

  Presented in Session 17. Pandemics, Health, and Fertility