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Do Recent Trends in Total Fertility Mean European Countries and Australia Are Facing Population Decline?

Nick Parr, Macquarie University

This paper examines the heterogeneity of the long run population growth prospects of countries with below (conventional) replacement level fertility and positive net migration. For individual years between 2009 and 2018 for nine European countries and Australia, it compares the TFR to the Current Migration Replacement level, developed by Parr (2021). The number of countries in which TFR was above Parr’s (2021) replacement level fell from seven in 2009 to four in 2018. In all or almost all years fertility for Australia, Sweden, Norway and Switzerland was above this replacement level and that for Hungary, and Italy below it. Germany’s TFR rose from below to above (Parr’s 2021) replacement level, whilst Finland’s TFR fell from above replacement to below it. The results show the population growth implication growth implication of an NRR below 1.0, when considered in combination with concurrent net migration and mortality, varies between countries and over time.

Keywords: Population size and growth/decline, Methodology, Fertility and childbirth

See paper.

  Presented in Session 88. Demographic Trends: Estimates and Projections