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Trends in Missing Females at Birth in India from 1981 to 2016: Analyses of 2·1 Million Birth Histories in Nationally Representative Surveys

Nandita Saikia, International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)
Meh Catherine, University of Toronto
Jayanta Bora, VART Consulting
Mishra Bhaskar, UNICEF
Chandra Shailaja, GOI
Jha Prabhat, University of Toronto

We investigated the missing females at birth in India and its states in 1981-2016 using a refined measure, conditional sex ratio (defined as the number of females born per 1000 males following the birth of an earlier daughter (s). Using 2·1 million birth histories from five nationally representative household surveys, we estimated decadal variation in conditional sex ratio and quantified trends in the numbers of missing female births for major states of India. We used logistic regression to calculate the odds ratio of a second (or third) girl given the sex of the earlier child(ren), adjusting for education, wealth, religion, caste, and residence. Missing female births totalled 13·5 million from 1987-2016, rising from 3·5 million in 1987-96 to 5·5 million in 2007-16, with increases in nearly every Indian state. From 1979-83 to 2012-16, the sex ratio for second-born following an earlier daughter declined from 930 to 885, and that for third-born following two earlier daughters declined from 968 (866-1069) to 788 (746-830). Gujarat, Punjab, Rajasthan, and Haryana had the most extreme sex ratios, comprising a third of the national totals of missing females at birth. Missing girls were mostly determined by earlier daughters, even considering state and education levels.

Keywords: Gender, Fertility and childbirth, Children and youth, Policy

See paper.

  Presented in Session 98. Societal Impacts of Sex Selection Behaviour